Poll challenges narrative that Hispanic voter bloc led to Trump win

Saludos, amigos:
So much has happened since Election Day on Nov. 5 and the so-called “Latino vote” has taken center stage in many conversations about the presidential contest outcome.
Exit polls showed that President-Elect Donald Trump received 46% of Latino voters’ support − the highest recorded percentage for a Republican candidate since pollsters started tracking this data in the 1970s. In addition, they indicated that 55% of male Latino voters voted for Trump.
However, a poll released Tuesday takes issue with these findings. The national civil rights group UnidosUS along with several partners presented the American Electorate Voter Poll, showing 62% of Hispanic voters selected Vice President Kamala Harris, while 37% picked Trump. In this poll by BSP Research, male Latinos split 51%-48% for Harris over Trump.
BSP Founder Gary Segura said in a webinar presenting the results: “Latino voters were not instrumental in the Trump victory. If no Latino had cast the ballot, the outcome would be unchanged.”
That’s a shocking departure from the narrative that Latino males favored Trump and that the Hispanic voter cohort made a big difference in the results.
A big reason why, Segura said: A bigger sample size in the BSP poll versus exit polls.
But two big takeaways echo much of the data and reporting I have examined recently:
“Latino voters were being more talked about than talked to,” said Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative for UnidosUS.
Several webinar presenters expressed concern that voter outreach to Latinos was an afterthought and while a majority voted for Harris, Latino voters’ enthusiasm for her fell short compared with past Democratic candidates including President Joe Biden. In addition, they said the data made clear that Latino voters did not support Trump’s immigration policies and the plan for mass deportation.
UnidosUS was originally set to release this poll on Nov. 6, the day after the election but postponed it to re-examine its data in light of the exit polling. That lull allowed for numerous analysis pieces to go out based on exit polling and not the BSP poll. On Nov. 7, I wrote a column titled “Trump gained Latino voters because Harris did not respond to top concerns.”
While some commentators explained Trump’s support among Latinos to racism, sexism and traditional cultural values, I pointed out that states including Nevada and New Mexico, with high numbers of Latino voters, have elected a Latina senator and governor.
In addition, many Democrats won congressional seats, including Sen.-Elect Ruben Gallego, the first Latino to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate.
In Tennessee, Rep.-Elect Gabby Salinas, D-Memphis, became the first Latino or Latina to hold a seat in the state legislature.
Also, a shoutout to Luis Mata who ran against a Republican incumbent in Tennessee House District 49. Mata is a Year Two Latino Tennessee Voices storyteller who filled out his documents to run for political office once he received his U.S. citizenship. While he did not win his contest in 2024, he is back to work on the issues he advocates for, particularly, the rights of immigrants and refugees in Tennessee.
With the incoming second Trump administration focused on a mass deportation efforts, that work is more important than ever.
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David Plazas is the director of opinion and engagement for the USA TODAY Network – Tennessee. He is of Colombian and Cuban descent, has studied or worked in several Spanish-speaking countries, and was the founding editor of Gaceta Tropical in Southwest Florida. He has lived in Tennessee since 2014. Call him at (615) 259-8063, email him at [email protected] or tweet to him at @davidplazas.